The trend of copper foil thinning is clear. In 2020, 6μm lithium battery copper foil may become the mainstream of the market. For power batteries, on the one hand, 6μm lithium battery copper foil has higher energy density, better physical properties and more stable chemical properties than 8μm; on the other hand, it can better satisfy head battery manufacturers seeking differentiated competitiveness. It is expected that 6μm is expected to replace 8μm this year and become the mainstream of the new generation of lithium battery copper foil.
If 6μm becomes the mainstream in the future, the new supply will mainly come from the expansion of production planned by the manufacturer, and the switch from traditional 8μm to 6μm. However, the lithium battery copper foil industry has strong equipment barriers, certification barriers and technical barriers (yield rate), making it difficult for new entrants to enter in the short-term; the main manifestations are the procurement of core equipment (cathode rolls, foil machines), and new production. There is a one-year construction window period for the infrastructure and trial production period of the line. At the same time, the power battery certification cycle for copper foil is about half a year, and mass production will take at least about half a year, making the expansion of production capacity unable to be quickly put on the market in a short period of time. Existing manufacturers try to switch from 8μm to 6μm, standard foil to lithium copper foil, there is a production loss rate, a large difference in enterprise yield rate and a certain conversion time period. It is expected that the supply of 6μm lithium copper foil in 2020-2021 may still mainly come from the original large factory.
Demand side: The downstream 6μm penetration rate is rapidly increasing, and the high demand growth is sustainable. Based on the proportion of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries in different domestic power battery factories and the expected production growth rate, it is expected that the domestic power battery consumption of lithium copper foil may increase by 31% to 75,000 tons in 2020; of which, the consumption of 6μm lithium copper foil It will increase by 78% to 46,000 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons, and the penetration rate of 6μm lithium battery copper foil may also increase from 49% to 65%. In the medium and long term, the average annual compound growth rate of demand for 6μm lithium battery copper foil in 2019-2022 is also expected to reach 57.7%, and high demand growth in the future may continue.
Supply and demand trends: The 6μm supply and demand gap may appear in 2020, and the yield rate and effective production capacity will determine profitability. It is expected that in 2020, the country’s 6μm lithium battery copper foil will change from a surplus in 2019 to a supply and demand gap, and demand manufacturers will become more diversified; there will be a 1.5-2 year expansion window period for superimposed conversion and new production line construction, and the gap is expected Continue to expand, 6μm lithium battery copper foil may have a structural price increase. The 6μm effective production capacity and yield rate of lithium battery copper foil manufacturers will determine the level of profitability. Whether they can quickly increase the 6μm yield rate and effective production capacity will become the core point of whether manufacturers can enjoy the industry dividend.
(Source: China Industrial Securities Research)
Post time: Oct-13-2021